Flood Hazard Mapping: Uncertainty and its Value in the Decision-making Process

Computers are increasingly used in the simulation of natural phenomena such as floods. However, these simulations are based on numerical approximations of equations formalizing our conceptual understanding of flood flows. Thus, model results are intrinsically subject to uncertainty and the use of probabilistic approaches seems more appropriate. Uncertain, probabilistic floodplain maps are widely used in the scientific domain, but still not sufficiently exploited to support the development of flood mitigation strategies. This thesis analyses major sources of uncertainty in flood inundation models and shows methods to generate probabilistic floodplain maps. Then, the thesis shows how to use these maps to support decision making in terms of floodplain development under flood hazard threat.